Nov. 2010 Election Results
Elections change face of Texas House
Texas voters took the “as usual” right out of politics, with stronger than anticipated voter turnout and an unprecedented shift in the partisan makeup of the Texas House of Representatives - more than 20 Democratic incumbents were defeated. The state-level election results raised a number of questions that will likely not be fully answered for several months.
Governor Rick Perry handily won his race to extend his tenure as the longest-serving governor in Texas history. The question mark: How much longer will he stay? His new book criticizing the perceived intrusiveness of the federal government and his upcoming national tour to promote the book have fueled speculation that he may have national aspirations.
State Board of Education
Two hard-fought SBOE battles in Central Texas were won by the Republican candidates; incumbent Ken Mercer of San Antonio defeated Rebecca Bell-Metereau, and Marsha Farney beat Judy Jennings to take an open seat based in Austin. Incumbent SBOE member Rene Nunez of El Paso was ousted by his Republican challenger, Charlie Garza. Some SBOE observers have questions about the as-yet unknown positions of some new members, including Garza and Republican George Clayton of Richardson, but the overall tone of the new SBOE is expected to be more moderate than in recent years.
Texas Senate
The Texas Senate will not be markedly different this session – we will see only one new senator: Democrat Jose Rodriguez from El Paso, elected to replace Democrat Eliot Shapleigh (who chose not to run for re-election). The question for Senate observers: Will Lt. Gov. Dewhurst and other Senate leaders choose to uphold the time-honored “two-thirds rule” requiring that legislation have the support of two-thirds of senators before it can be considered on the Senate floor?
The two-thirds rule (technically not a rule, but a long-standing policy of the Senate) has prevented the consideration of controversial, largely partisan bills in the past, including private school voucher legislation. Senate Democrats currently have just the number needed to block bills under the two-thirds rule (the Senate makeup is 19 Republicans to 12 Democrats) but the policy itself could easily be undone by a simple majority vote. Given the upcoming partisan redistricting battle it seems unlikely that Senate Republicans would leave the policy intact; one option may be to simply exempt redistricting bills from the policy and retain the two-thirds rule for other legislation.
Texas House
The House has always been the rowdier of the two Texas chambers, and this election cycle was no exception. At least 22 Democratic seats were overturned, changing the composition from a near-balanced 77-73 Republican/Democratic split to a lopsided 99-51 (this number includes the defeat of 21 incumbent Democratic legislators and the change of a North Texas seat to the Republican party after the Democratic incumbent chose not to run for re-election). Another Democratic victory was so narrow (15 votes!) that a recount or the addition of provisional ballots could swing the win to the Republican candidate.
Notable among the House members not returning in January are Rep. Jim McReynolds of Lufkin, a perennial TCTA Legislative Star; and Rep. Jim Dunnam of Waco, the head of the House Democratic caucus.
The outcome introduces a number of questions. Given the overwhelming conservative landslide, does moderate Speaker Joe Straus still retain control? Within hours after the polls closed on Election Day, Straus publicized a list of 126 returning House members pledging to support him again as speaker. Straus also held a press conference the day after the election, accompanied by around a dozen current and newly-elected representatives, to discuss his plans with the media. But it is worth noting that pledges are nonbinding, and at least one conservative Republican (Warren Chisum of Pampa) has said he remains in the speaker race. The real test will come on the opening day of the legislative session in January when the speaker election takes place.
Will committee chairs – especially those of the all-important Public Education Committee and Pensions, Investments and Financial Services Committee – remain in place? See the previous question. The House Speaker names committee chairs; a new speaker could signal changes in policy by appointing new chairs.
Will the House pass major revisions to current education policy? We’ve already predicted battles over crucial teacher and student issues such as legal protections, class sizes, and more. With around three dozen new lawmakers, whose positions on these issues are untested, almost anything could happen.
The elections undoubtedly sent legislators the message that they need to be paying attention to their constituents. The budget crunch means that financial gains are probably off the table for this session, but some school board trustees and administrators are taking the opportunity to lobby for more "local control." Now is the time to let your elected representatives know that "local control" includes YOU, not just your superintendent and school board! Legislators should be listening to teachers to learn more about what’s educationally responsible, not cutting costs to the detriment of students.
If you’re shy about making contact, a great way to start is with a short congratulatory note or (even better) phone call in the next few days. Establish those relationships with both lawmakers and their staffs now, before the frenzy of the legislative session begins. It is absolutely crucial that you have a continuing dialogue in the coming months with your state senator and representative to communicate what’s important to you.
