Understanding the 82nd legislative session–what you need to know

On January 11, the 82nd Texas Legislature convenes, and understanding the dynamics behind this complex five-month session will be crucial. We can’t promise this is everything you’ll need to know, but the information below should help you follow along – and encourage you to become actively involved – in the 2011 legislative session.

Political landscape – the House

What happened on November 2 in Texas took even veteran pollsters by surprise. Most observers expected Republicans to gain several seats in the Texas House of Representatives, particularly those seats held by one-term Democrats who had been elected in districts previously held by Republicans. But no one had predicted the defeat of a total of 21 incumbent Democrats, many of whom were generally well-regarded veterans. With the addition of a previously Democratic seat that turned over to a Republican in an open race (the incumbent did not run for reelection), the Texas House of Representatives went from a near-balanced 77 Republican/73 Democrat split to a lopsided 99/51.

Within hours after the election results became clear, the battle for political dominance within the Republican party began with the escalation of the ongoing speaker’s race. Current House Speaker Joe Straus released a list of more than 120 names of House members who had pledged to support his bid to be speaker for the 2011 session. Straus had been a compromise candidate in 2009, a member that House Democrats and a large number of Republicans could agree to support. When the recent elections appeared to increase the strength of the more conservative end of the Republican spectrum, challengers representing the conservative right came forward. Reps. Warren Chisum and Ken Paxton, bolstered by support from a large number of conservative advocacy groups, have expressed concerns about Straus’s perceived “moderate” political leanings, including accusations that he appointed too many Democratic members to positions of leadership during the 2009 session. Straus is predicted by most to be re-elected as speaker, but the outcome is far from certain.

Regardless of the outcome of the speaker’s race, it appears that the lower chamber will be a House divided – not strictly by party, but potentially by philosophy, such that the divisions may reflect three or more factions who may form unlikely alliances and change the direction of state policy.

Political landscape – the Senate

The composition of the Senate will vary by only one member, with a new Democratic senator from El Paso (Jose Rodriguez) taking the place of the previous Democratic senator. The partisan makeup will remain at 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats, which is significant in light of the so-called “two-thirds rule.” The extent to which highly controversial and partisan proposals such as redistricting and voter ID legislation may break down the normally smooth operation of the Senate may depend on whether the two-thirds rule remains intact. At least one state senator has called for its abolishment, which could dramatically change the nature of the bills that come up for debate.

Redistricting

Prominent on the political landscape this session, and further complicating the structure of this session, is the redistricting process. Redistricting sessions are always brutal, with legislators battling for their political lives. The politics can affect virtually any subject arising during the session as the give and take becomes more intense.

Many observers believe that in order to appropriately address population shifts in Texas, the boundaries cannot be drawn in a way that will protect the 99-member majority that the Republican party currently holds in the Texas House. The resulting negotiations may end with current legislators “paired” against each other in the next election.

In fact, redistricting has already become controversial, with one House member withdrawing his pledge of support to Speaker Straus because of a perceived threat by a Straus supporter that opponents would not fare well in the process. (An investigatory hearing was subsequently held, and no action taken at this time against the Straus supporter.)

The budget

The numbers are nearly overwhelming – the high end of the projected budget shortfall represents about 25% of current spending levels. Though the Texas economy is generally considered to be stronger than that of most states, the size of the shortfall is very similar to the $25 billion deficit predicted for California.

While the figures are dramatic, the actual budget process is mind-numbingly slow and detailed. Both the House and Senate file versions of the appropriations bill, which must eventually be passed in order for state operations to continue beyond the current fiscal year. The process started months ago when all state agencies submitted a legislative appropriations request – a budget proposal laying out expenditures for current programs along with a “wish list” requesting additional funds for new projects or services. A draft budget is currently being developed in each chamber by legislative offices and Legislative Budget Board staff. Hearings have been held on each agency’s budget, with more to come after the session begins and the House Appropriations and Senate Finance committees are appointed. Subcommittees and workgroups will meet for hours to hash out the details on each program. Most work is done outside of the public hearings, and the process can be very difficult to influence.

The Texas Education Agency and the Teacher Retirement System each submitted a budget request this summer. The TEA request, following the LBB requirement to decrease costs by 10%, includes cuts in a variety of programs, including science labs, extended year programs, rural school technology, steroid testing, textbooks, the Student Success Initiative, the DATE incentive pay program, teacher mentoring, internal agency administration (the equivalent of 70 staff positions) and more. The TEA budget includes the FoundationSchool Program funds that comprise state funding to public school districts and charter schools, but at the time the requests were developed the FSP was specifically exempted from the cuts required by the LBB.

The TRS budget assumes that the state will continue its current contribution rate of 6.644%, and the “wish list” included a request for additional funds to gradually increase the state’s contribution rate from 6.644% to 7.1%. Administrative costs for TRS are primarily paid for through the pension fund, rather than state funds, and the agency was not required to cut programs.

Balancing the budget

So, how can lawmakers make up the state budget’s massive shortfall? Any head of household knows the basic formula: reduce spending or increase revenue.

“No new taxes” is a given this session, with the elections reinforcing a mantra that was already assumed. Proposals that will bring in significant amounts of money are likely off the table, but there may be some loopholes that will allow the collection of some new revenues. Goods and services currently exempted from the sales tax, for example, could lose that exemption; these range from tattoo and body-piercing services to bottled water sales.

Another much-discussed revenue enhancer is the expansion of gambling, including casino-style operations, though supporters have warned that revenues would not likely be available until a year or two after the law passed. The gambling expansion may be dead on arrival, though, given the Legislature’s apparent political shift further to the right.

Lawmakers will have access to a Rainy Day Fund estimated at approximately $9 billion. It would seem that the budget crisis constitutes a “rainy day,” but use of any amount from the fund for the budget shortfall would require a two-thirds vote in each chamber, which may be a difficult bar to reach.

Legislators may also turn to accounting tricks, popular in challenging times, to help close the gap. For example, legislators can approve a delay in state payments to school districts by one day, moving those costs from one biennium into the next budget cycle.

But the primary gap closer will be budget cuts. State agencies were asked to trim current-year budgets along with their budget requests for the upcoming session, but the savings are nowhere near enough to make up the difference. Agencies are likely to cut a significant number of state agency jobs, and key governmental services will be affected.

Impact on schools

So - what does all of this have to do with public education, or your classroom, or your bank account? The extent of the shortfall is so large that previously protected areas, including public education, can no longer count on being saved from the chopping block. State employees are facing significant layoffs, the possibility of unpaid furloughs, and major increases in employee expenses for the enviable state employee health insurance program. School employees may not be immune from similar cost-saving measures.

At the state level, it is anticipated that the draft budget filed this winter will include significant cuts to prekindergarten programs, the DATE incentive pay program and textbook purchasing. Districts, generally in no better financial condition than the state, are unlikely to be able to make up the differences in state funding, so programs, equipment/materials, salaries, and even jobs are at stake.

Political issues come back into play in the education arena as well. A private school voucher proposal, which has been less of a threat in recent years, may have more traction in the new House. Its chances in the Senate remain up in the air, given the uncertain future of the two-thirds rule; opponents have always been able to block consideration in previous sessions, but elimination of that policy could allow not only consideration but possibly smooth passage through the Senate of a proposal diverting state funds to private schools.

At the local level, some school districts are withholding budget decisions because of the looming uncertainty in state funding. Others are cutting costs through methods such as four-day work weeks for summer employees. Many districts implemented reductions in force last year, with more likely to consider such a move this year.

In the absence of adequate funding from the state, some administrators are requesting “flexibility” from state law, alternatively known as “increased local control” or “freedom from unfunded mandates.” These terms encompass concepts including elimination of 22:1 class-size limits, removal or weakening of teacher legal protections, and even repeal of the state minimum salary schedule. Whether the propositions come in the form of specific legislation or as part of an overall “mandate relief ” proposal (such as making it easier for districts to become “home-rule” districts, effectively excusing them from many key state laws), passage could be very damaging to teachers and students.

As the Texas Tribune recently warned: “There’s carnage ahead.” Texas teachers must be vigilant in the coming months, from opening day on January 11 to “sine die” on May 30. See the “Legislative resources” information on the facing page, direct your colleagues to our publications and website, and stay in touch with your legislators and with TCTA staff. This may be the biggest challenge we’ve faced in recent history, and we’ll need all hands on deck to weather this storm.