Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Glenn Hegar released his revised revenue estimate for the state today, informing lawmakers that they have $3.12 billion more in state revenue to work with in developing the 2022-23 budget than had been projected in January. For the current biennium (which ends August 31, 2021), he projected a $725 million surplus, a change of around $1.6 billion from the nearly $1 billion deficit estimated at the beginning of the legislative session.

Hegar credits increases in COVID-19 vaccinations and decreases in case counts and hospitalizations with improving the state’s economic outlook. He noted that oil and gas prices have risen and economic activity has accelerated, resulting in sharp increases in tax collections.

Hegar also noted that deposits to the Economic Stabilization Fund (also known as the Rainy Day Fund) and the Highway Fund should total nearly $3 billion each over the coming biennium, and the ESF has a projected total of more than $12 billion by the end of fiscal year 2023 (assuming there are no legislative appropriations from the fund).

He pointed out that global conditions are still volatile and could affect the Texas economy, making the revenue estimate difficult to predict. However, he said that Texas is still well-positioned for economic recovery.